The Hungarian parliamentary election campaign has entered a feverish final stretch as the
country approaches April 12. Over the past week, the political landscape has been defined by
unprecedented leads for both main parties in different opinion polls, explosive allegations of
espionage, speculation about a post-election deadlock and an economic stabilization effort by
the central bank.
Polling divides have significantly grown: Medián gives TISZA a dominant 58% lead over Fidesz’s
35%, while Nézőpont places Fidesz ahead at 46% against TISZA’s 40%. These discrepancies
have been attributed to differences in methodology and the perceived political alignment of
pollsters. Ultimately, intense polarization likely obscures true voter sentiment, which some
analysts say may indicate that the race is closer than these outliers suggest. Encouraged by
the polling results, Magyar is now openly aiming for a two-thirds majority, however the
likelihood of such an outcome remains uncertain and is widely seen as dependent on turnout.
Controversy erupted following media reports that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó allegedly
provided “live” updates of confidential EU meetings to Russia. TISZA’s leader labelled this
treason, while pro-government media outlets have branded investigative journalist Szabolcs
Panyi a foreign intelligence asset, claiming he was helped by an EU member state to secretly
record Szijjártó. Both sides have dismissed the claims, with Szijjártó arguing he will negotiate
with anyone if it is in Hungary’s interest, while Panyi, whom the government has reported for
espionage, stated that his own conversations were recorded while he was investigating the
original leaks. In parallel, another recent report revealed that secret services allegedly
pressured the National Investigation Service (NNI) to conduct politically motivated
investigations and recruitment operations aimed at dismantling the opposition.
Speculation is mounting regarding some form of post-election cooperation between Fidesz
and the nationalist party Our Homeland. Influential Fidesz member János Lázár signalled an
openness to cooperation, noting that both parties share similar views, except for Hungary’s
EU membership. Our Homeland leader László Toroczkai suggested he would support issuesbased
cooperation with the ruling bloc, though TISZA has rejected any cooperation with what
they call a “Fidesz satellite.” In parallel, third-party candidates, including those from the
centre-left Democratic Coalition (DK), are withdrawing to boost TISZA’s chances in the 106
individual constituencies, with the satirical-progressive Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP), also the
fifth formation on the ballot paper, facing similar pressure.
On the economic front, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) has kept the base rate at 6.25%.
However, Governor Mihály Varga lowered 2026 GDP growth projections to 1.7%, citing weak
exports. While inflation has dropped to 1.4%, the downward revision undermines Fidesz’s
“economic breakthrough” narrative, suggesting the era of high inflation is being replaced by
prolonged stagnation.
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