Former President Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition has scored a decisive victory in the country’s latest snap parliamentary elections, securing nearly 45% of the vote and an estimated 130 seats in the 240-member parliament. The centre-right GERB-SDS of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is second with just 13.3% (around 39 seats), marking a significant collapse in popular support. They are followed by the liberal-reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition (PP-DB) with 12.6% (roughly 37 seats), the Turkish minority DPS-NN of the U.S.-sanctioned Delyan Peevski with 7% (around 21 seats), while the pro-Russian Revival narrowly crossed the 4% threshold with 4.3% (around 13 seats). The left-wing BSP-United Left has fallen out of parliament for the first time since Bulgaria’s democratic transition.
The main takeaway from Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election since April 2021 is a transition from chronic parliamentary fragmentation to potential single-party governance after Radev successfully consolidated the protest vote and significantly outperformed expectations. Following years of political instability, this outcome provides the political space for faster decision making and policy execution and could end the cycle of repeated elections in the short term. A key positive dynamic is the potential for a constitutional majority (160 MPs) through the expected cooperation between Radev’s bloc and PP-DB. Despite broader differences (particularly on foreign policy), the two formations share core priorities in anti-corruption measures, restructuring the Supreme Judicial Council and appointing a new Prosecutor General, creating a realistic pathway for long-delayed judicial reform.
The emergence of a stable government with a strong anti-corruption mandate could improve predictability, regulatory consistency and the overall business environment. At the same time, uncertainty persists regarding the direction of Radev’s economic policy, particularly the potential for a more interventionist or protectionist tilt that could prioritize domestic firms over foreign investors. In parallel, his Russian-leaning foreign policy positioning, while not explicitly anti-EU, could translate into less aligned or more assertive stances vis-à-vis the EU consensus. Nonetheless, Bulgaria’s Eurozone membership continues to act as an important pro-European anchor.
Radev is expected to form a cabinet quickly. One of its first key tasks will be the preparation of the 2026 state budget, with fiscal discipline remaining a central objective. His government is also expected to prioritize dismantling oligarchic structures through judicial reform and stricter oversight of public procurement. There is a credible pathway toward a constitutional majority through cooperation with PP-DB, given shared priorities around anti-corruption measures, restructuring the Supreme Judicial Council and appointing a new Prosecutor General.
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