Hungary is gearing up for its most competitive election in 16 years, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance facing its toughest challenge yet, from Péter Magyar’s pro-EU Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA), a catch-all formation aligned with the center-right European People’s Party (EPP).
The outcome of the race remains uncertain due to polling inconsistencies and Hungary’s unique, one-round election system. Of the 199 MPs, 106 are elected in single-mandate districts with a relative majority, while the remaining 93 MPs are elected through party lists, with a 5% threshold. Independent pollsters and those seen as closer to the opposition expect a comfortable TISZA victory (49-58% vs. Fidesz’s 35-40%), with some even predicting a two-thirds victory. In a stark contrast, pollsters seen as close to the government put Fidesz at 46-51% against TISZA’s estimated 40-42%, with Fidesz projected to pick up at least 60 of the 106 constituency seats and secure a simple majority.
The baseline scenario assumes TISZA securing a simple majority, while a constitutional majority is also a possible outcome if TISZA wins all battleground districts and flips some Fidesz strongholds. Due to the disproportionate election system, Fidesz could lose the popular vote and still win, by winning a stable majority of constituency seats or via an informal alliance with the far-right Our Homeland. The latter formation is polling between 4-8% and its voter behavior will also shape the election as a split vote from Our Homeland voters could save Fidesz from losing its majority.
The outcome will have European and global implications as a TISZA government could signal a major shift in Hungary’s current political and EU policy direction. Under this scenario, potential policy implications include rebuilding ties with the EU, securing Hungary’s post-pandemic EU recovery funding and a full government restructuring. If Fidesz wins without winning the popular vote, it would face questions about political legitimacy and may provoke mass protests. In the long run, a new Fidesz government could lead to the continuation of current trends in Hungary’s external relations, while either government will face significant budgetary pressures, which could require fiscal adjustments.
