Hungary’s election campaign turned even more volatile this week, as rival pollsters continued to publish contrasting results. Pollsters seen as close to the government predict a simple majority for the ruling Fidesz-KDNP bloc with up to 50% of the popular vote, but others (seen as close to the opposition) show the main opposition TISZA party leading by significant margins, reaching as high as 54% and with the potential to secure a two-thirds majority. These discrepancies have led to discussions about how a divergence between the popular vote and seat distribution could affect perceptions of the election’s legitimacy.
The final stretch of the campaign is increasingly dominated by mutual allegations of secret service operations. Bence Szabó, a detective from the National Bureau of Investigation (NNI), went public last week with allegations that the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (AH) conducted a covert operation to dismantle TISZA. Szabó claims secret services used the guise of child pornography investigations to seize IT devices and plant surveillance tools on opposition infrastructure. The government dismissed these claims as a counterintelligence operation aimed at alleged Ukrainian assets, though the involved TISZA-linked specialists have denied any foreign links.
In addition to warning against alleged Ukrainian interference, the government is centering its campaign on utility price caps, warning of massive cost hikes if the opposition wins. On the Budapest Stock Exchange, government-linked infrastructure and IT firms saw a 1.5% decline as investors weighed a potential change of government. Concurrently, recent forecasts downgraded 2026 GDP growth to 1.7% amid an energy shock, while inflation is projected to rebound to 3.8%. Additionally, unemployment hit a nine-year high of 4.9%, heightening economic tension before the election.
While the outcome of the election remains uncertain, some analysts suggest that recent allegations may have increased the opposition’s momentum, while the government appears to be responding to mounting pressure in the final phase of the campaign.
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