Possible Scenarios for The Hungarian Parliamentary Elections
February 8, 2022
In less than two months, Hungarians will go to the polls in the country's most open parliamentary elections since Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance received a supermajority in the Hungarian National Assembly in 2010. The upcoming vote is the toughest electoral challenge yet for Fidesz as – for the first time in nearly 12 years – Hungary's diverse multi-party opposition is running on a joint ticket and looking to unseat Orbán and install conservative small-town Mayor Péter Márki-Zay as Prime Minister.
With the opposition standing united, a change of government has increasingly become a possibility. Running a robust election campaign, however, Fidesz has managed to consolidate public support and remains the strong favourite to win the upcoming parliamentary vote, although most likely with an absolute majority instead of a constitutional one. At the same time, several other factors have the potential to impact the parliamentary elections, leaving multiple outcomes possible.
Aretera provides a brief overview of the election campaign, the state of the electoral race, the multiple scenarios for the parliamentary vote and the implications it holds for political stability.