Scenarios for Bulgaria's Latest Snap Elections
Analysis & Implications of the Upcoming Parliamentary Vote

March 28, 2023
On Sunday, Bulgarians will head back to the polls for the fifth time in just two years, to participate in the country’s latest snap parliamentary elections. Plagued with political instability and short-term governments throughout its recent history, Bulgaria heads into this crucial vote hoping to move towards a firmer political footing. However, with most commentators predicting yet another hung parliament, further confusion and instability seem more likely.

The snap election on Sunday comes after the previous parliamentary election, held last October, failed to produce a functioning parliamentary majority. Despite winning at the polls, the centre-right GERB-SDS party of former longtime Prime Minister Boyko Borissov was unsuccessful in forming a new government, as were, in turn, both the centrist We Continue the Change (PP) movement of reformist ex-PM Kiril Petkov and the centre-left BSP for Bulgaria. Three consecutive failed attempts to form a government then triggered the latest snap parliamentary vote.

While our baseline scenario assumes Bulgaria will head to a sixth consecutive parliamentary election later this year, several domestic factors could yet influence the outcome of Sunday’s vote, and thus produce alternative scenarios. Below, Aretera provides further insight into Bulgaria’s political landscape and the implications of Sunday’s election.
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