Georgia is bracing itself for much-anticipated parliamentary elections set to shape its domestic political and geopolitical trajectory for years to come. The electoral race, the first proportional parliamentary election in the country’s democratic history, will come down to a clash between the ruling Georgian Dream party (GD) and four opposition blocs aiming to put an end to 12 years of GD rule.

In power since 2012, the ruling GD is seeking a constitutional majority and is campaigning with the promise of peace, arguing that Georgia could follow in the footsteps of war-torn Ukraine should the ruling bloc fall out of power. In contrast, the four opposition blocs have vowed to prioritize Georgia’s European aspirations and reverse what they regard as their country’s democratic backsliding.

With various polls suggesting different outcomes, the results of the election remain difficult to predict. Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes that GD will form the next government but will likely fall short of a two-thirds majority in parliament. At the same time, a combined opposition win remains possible if popular support for the ruling bloc drops below 50% and if the pro-Russian far-right falls out of parliament. However, even if this happens, it is yet to be seen whether the four main opposition blocs could reach an agreement to form a coalition government.

Given the high level of political polarization within Georgian society, post-election uncertainty is increasingly likely. Due to years of allegations against the ruling bloc over alleged undemocratic practices, (a part of) the opposition may choose to contest the election results as they did following the last parliamentary elections in 2020. This could provoke mass protests, which may even require international mediation. Another adverse scenario entails the ruling bloc refusing to leave government if it falls short of a majority.