On 27^th October, Uzbekistan will hold parliamentary elections under a newly introduced, mixed election system. Unlike in the previous election, in which all 150 members of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis (the lower house of the country’s parliament) were elected in single-mandate districts, half of the MPs will now be elected proportionally through party lists. Initiated by Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2023, the election reform is aimed at ensuring that the country’s political parties have a greater role in public life, and it has already resulted in a greater level of emphasis on policy issues close to the country’s parliamentary parties.

However, given the lack of independent political parties in the race, Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes that Uzbekistan’s ruling parties – the Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (UzLiDep) and the nationalist National Revival Party (Milliy Tiklanish) – will remain in government. Three other parties are in the race for parliament, including the social democratic Adolat (Justice), the left-wing People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the environmentalist Ecological Party. All three formations are considered to be a part of the pro-government opposition. Accordingly, no major changes are expected in the leadership of the country’s government and parliament.

Looking ahead, the real impact of the election reform initiated by President Mirziyoyev is yet to be seen. In recent years, Uzbekistan has seen a greater level of political participation and public debate compared to the rule of former President Islam Karimov, who held a tight grip on power during his 25-year rule as head of state. At the same time, critics argue that the liberalization efforts remain controlled by state authorities in order to avoid actual political competition.