Moldova’s pro-European President Maia Sandu has won the first round of the country’s presidential elections, securing more than 42.5% of the popular vote against 26% for her main challenger, Alexandr Stoianoglo, the candidate of the Russia-friendly Party of Socialists. Since no candidate secured more than half of the popular vote, the elections will proceed to a run-off vote on 3^rd November.

Held in parallel with the presidential elections, 50.4% of Moldovans voted to support enshrining the country’s EU membership bid into the Moldovan constitution in a referendum, while 49.6% voted against. By combining the presidential elections and the constitutional referendum on EU membership, Sandu and the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) hoped to cement the country’s pro-EU trajectory. However, the knife-edge majority for the pro-EU camp, which Sandu claims is a result of Russian election interference, is a disappointment for the ruling bloc, especially in view of pre-election polling, which predicted a landslide win for their campaign.

While the outcome of the presidential race will also depend on whom the remaining candidates will endorse, Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes that President Sandu will defeat Stoianoglo in the second round, allowing her to secure her second term as head of state. Although less likely, a united opposition front could yet prevent her from doing so. Whether Sandu’s pro-European agenda could be advanced in the coming years heavily depends on not only the results of the presidential elections but also the 2025 parliamentary elections.