Georgia is bracing itself for (yet another) post-election crisis after pro-EU opposition parties rejected the results of this weekend’s parliamentary elections, citing allegations of large-scale election fraud, voter intimidation and election interference.

With nearly 100% of the votes counted, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party of billionaire ex-Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili officially secured more than 54% of the popular vote in an election held under a fully proportional system for the first time. The four pro-EU opposition blocs, which sought to end 12 years of GD rule, received less than 40%. Domestic and international observers have also reported irregularities, while the EU has expressed concerns and called on Georgia to investigate the allegations.

At the time of writing, Georgia’s political future remains widely uncertain. Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes a post-election crisis with no clear end in sight, accompanied by anti-government protests and calls for a re-run election. Based on the series of protests held since 2020 and the country’s increasingly polarized political environment, Georgian authorities may crack down on forthcoming protests but also on the democratic opposition, while alleged Russian interference remains a concern. In view of the anti-government protests held after the last parliamentary elections in 2020 (when the opposition also rejected the results), the upcoming crisis may reach a point where EU mediation is required (as it was four years ago).

The post-election crisis is expected to have a profound impact on Georgia’s EU membership bid, while the upcoming days will prove crucial for determining the country’s political future. International investors are advised to closely monitor the political situation.