Eight parties are on course to enter Bulgaria’s parliament following the latest snap elections – the sixth snap electoral contest since the inconclusive April 2021 parliamentary contest. With 100% of the votes counted and at a turnout of 39%, the centre-right GERB-SDS party of former PM Boyko Borissov has won the snap election, securing 26.4% of the popular vote. The rival and pro-EU We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria alliance (PP-DB) finished a distant second with 14.2%, closely followed by the pro-Russian Revival (13.4%).

They are followed by the Turkish minority Movement for Rights and Freedoms-New Beginning (DPS-NN) of US-sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski (11.5%), the left-wing Bulgarian Socialist Party-United Left (BSP-OL) with 7.6%, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) of former DPS leader Ahmed Dogan (7.5%), the populist There is Such a Nation (ITN) with 6.8%, as well as the newly emerged and populist-nationalist MECh (Sword) party with 4.6%. The pro-Russian Grandeur, which entered parliament for the first time in the previous elections in June, narrowly fell short of passing the 4% threshold.

With a hung parliament, the prospects of a stable government remain slim. One possible outcome is a coalition centred around GERB and PP-DB, however it is yet to be seen if they can agree on a coalition deal and attract other allies needed to secure a majority in parliament. Strong political and policy differences between the two blocs suggest that such a government would be highly unstable. Another possible scenario entails yet another snap parliamentary election, most likely in the spring of 2025, as well as the appointment of a new caretaker government. A deepening political deadlock would negatively impact the country’s aspirations to join the Eurozone in 2025/2026 and secure full membership of the EU’s Schengen Area, while growing support for nationalist and pro-Russian formations remains an additional risk.