Georgia is bracing itself for a protracted post-election crisis after pro-EU opposition parties rejected the results of the 26th October parliamentary election, citing allegations of large-scale election fraud, voter intimidation and Russian interference.

Mass protests against the government have accelerated after the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party of billionaire ex-PM Bidzina Ivanishvili announced that it will “suspend” the country’s EU integration until 2028. The ruling bloc has also denounced the protests as an attempt to destabilize the country, moved to detain prominent opposition leader Nika Gvaramia, and forcibly cracked down on protesters. In response to the police crackdown, the US and the UK moved to sanction several Georgian officials. While the EU aimed to do the same, it was prevented from doing so after Hungary and Slovakia issued a veto.

The crisis has deepened after Georgian Dream ally Mikheil Kavelashvili, an ex-ruling party MP known for his anti-Western stances, was elected President by a government-controlled electoral college and is on course to be sworn in as head of state by the end of the year. Meanwhile, outgoing President Salome Zurabishvili, who has emerged as the informal leader of the pro-EU opposition, continues to call for a re-run election.

At the time of writing, Georgia’s political future remains widely uncertain. Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes a post-election crisis with no clear end in sight, accompanied by anti-government protests and calls for a re-run election. Based on the series of protests held since 2020 and the increasingly polarized political environment, Georgian authorities may respond even more forcibly to forthcoming protests but also on the democratic opposition, while alleged Russian interference remains a concern.