As widely anticipated, Rafał Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s liberal Mayor and the candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s senior ruling Civic Coalition (KO), has won the first round of Poland’s Presidential election, securing 31.4% of the popular vote. Karol Nawrocki, an historian supported by the main opposition and right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), finished a very close second with 29.5%. As neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote, they will face off in a run-off vote on 1^st June.

Crucially for Poland’s political future, the first-round results send a clear warning to Prime Minister Tusk’s ruling coalition, whose time in power has often been marked by internal conflict and perceived slow policy progress. Its candidates collectively secured just over 40% of the vote, while those of both junior governing blocs (Third Way and the Left) have underperformed. By contrast, the combined strength of the conservative and nationalist electorate appears greater, echoing a broader trend currently seen across Europe and beyond. At the same time, observers argue that the anti-establishment sentiment pushing voters to support third party candidates could also discourage the same voters from participating in the second round of the election, which would help Trzaskowski.

In a run-off vote expected to be extremely close, a victory for Rafał Trzaskowski would ensure an uninterrupted legislative process for the ruling bloc to support its blocked initiatives. These include reforming Poland’s judiciary, reversing the country’s near-total abortion ban and reducing health insurance contributions for small businesses. By contrast, Nawrocki – if elected President – would be poised to continue in the footsteps of outgoing PiS-allied President Andrzej Duda to oppose several legislative initiatives supported by the ruling bloc. Simultaneously, Poland’s ruling coalition would also be weakened, with political instability likely to become a key risk to monitor under this scenario.