In a narrow but significant victory for Poland’s main opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), Karol Nawrocki, a national-conservative historian, has defeated Warsaw’s liberal Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s Presidential election run-off. Securing 50.89% of the vote on 1st June, on a turnout of 71.63%, Nawrocki capitalized on public dissatisfaction with Poland’s ruling and establishment parties, his positioning as a political newcomer and on the Trump administration’s endorsement.

By contrast, the outcome is a major setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s multi-party governing coalition. Tusk returned as PM in December 2023 and is leading a governing coalition involving his Civic Coalition (KO), the centrist-agrarian Third Way and the left-wing Lewica. His government pledged to introduce a series of political and policy initiatives, however most were either blocked by outgoing President Andrzej Duda (also a PiS ally) or not agreed upon within the governing coalition itself. In this regard, Nawrocki’s victory will mean the continuation of the current status quo, in which most of the ruling bloc’s legislative initiatives could be blocked by the incoming President, due to his extensive veto powers. This could particularly hold for any initiative from the ruling bloc deemed ideologically fuelled. Economy & business-related initiatives and regulation may be less impacted, although Nawrocki could choose to use his veto powers to influence economic legislation in favour of his political supporters.

Following Nawrocki’s victory, Tusk will likely restructure his cabinet to ensure the KO’s leading role in the government, but also to secure the continued support of its main coalition partners, since the departure of either could collapse the government. This will likely be accompanied by a vote of confidence to dismiss rumours about the cabinet’s potential collapse. In parallel, PiS will potentially aim to lure conservative MPs from continuing to support the Cabinet, while both large blocs will hope to improve relations with the nationalist-libertarian Confederation, increasingly viewed as able to break the KO-PiS duopoly during the next parliamentary election.

The outcome will also reaffirm Poland’s relationship with the US but could mean that relations with the EU may come under strain. Notably, the Tusk Government – although supportive of strong ties with Washington – has been more aligned with the EU, especially on support for Ukraine. While consensus on supporting Kyiv remains, Nawrocki notably opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership and may reignite tensions between Warsaw and Brussels over a series of issues, including the rule of law and judicial independence.