On 30th June, Poland concluded its Presidency of the Council of the European Union, marking the end of a highly challenging six months at the helm of the European bloc amidst an uncertain global economic and geopolitical environment. In line with its Presidency agenda, security and competitiveness were the ultimate focal points of Poland’s EU Presidency, as demonstrated by initiatives such as the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument (a €150 billion-worth program aimed at boosting defence industry readiness) and the bloc’s Omnibus Package, which introduces regulatory simplifications to boost competitiveness across several industry sectors.

From the outset, Poland managed expectations by making it clear that its objective was not to push through a large number of new EU laws but rather to shape the EU’s broader political direction. Warsaw’s aspirations focused on increasing European defence funding, simplifying EU laws, tightening migration rules, undertaking a paradigm shift in climate policy and making progress on EU enlargement.

While it is often difficult to isolate the influence of a single Presidency due to the EU’s complex institutional structure, our assessment is that the EU has largely moved in the direction outlined by Poland, driven by initiatives such as the €150 billion-worth SAFE program. The initiative required complex negotiation under tight deadlines and demonstrated the Presidency’s capacity to deliver on high-stakes issues with the potential to shape the bloc’s future. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s domestic deregulation agenda also aligned well with the European Commission’s corresponding priorities, positioning Poland as a key advocate for removing barriers within the EU’s Single Market.

With the EU Presidency now concluded, Tusk’s focus will shift to navigating a complex domestic political landscape. Poland’s ruling parties are currently negotiating a major government reshuffle after Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the main opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), emerged victorious from the recent Presidential elections. Nawrocki is widely expected to exercise his extensive veto powers to block the ruling coalition's legislative initiatives.