Bulgaria is gearing up for its eighth parliamentary election in five years, to be held on April 19. Sofia has been trapped in an unwanted snap election cycle since mid-2021 as its deeply fragmented parliament is split between traditional status quo parties and newer anti-corruption reformists (whose foreign policy orientation also differ), making it nearly impossible to form a stable majority. This paralysis is further fueled by systemic distrust and personal rivalries among political leaders, leading to short-lived coalitions that frequently collapse under the pressure of corruption scandals or policy disagreements, as well as to caretaker governments with a limited mandate.
The campaign has been dominated by former President Rumen Radev’s new Progressive Bulgaria coalition, which is running on an anti-establishment and anti-corruption platform. Polling places Radev in the lead with 29-32% (70–85 of the 240 seats), followed by the centre-right GERB-SDS at 17-20% (40–55 seats), the liberal-reformist PP-DB bloc at 10-13% (25–35 seats) and the Turkish minority DPS-New Beginning of the US-sanctioned Delyan Peevski at 5-8% (15-25 seats). With around 15% of voters undecided and additional parties verging on the threshold, the landscape remains volatile, while other parties may also enter parliament, including the pro-Russian Revival and the left-wing BSP-United Left.
Our baseline scenario sees Radev forming a politically heterogeneous and potentially unstable coalition with smaller actors such as Revival or BSP-United Left as he has categorically ruled out joining forces with GERB or DPS. Alternatively, Radev might seek issue-based cooperation with PP-DB to secure a 160-MP constitutional majority necessary for judicial reform, however this cooperation would be challenged by the differing foreign policy orientations of the two blocs. A high risk of institutional paralysis remains, which could trigger a ninth election later in 2026, coinciding with Presidential elections.
A Radev-led government would prioritize dismantling alleged oligarchic structures through judicial reform and tighter procurement oversight. While fiscal discipline remains a stated goal, a shift toward progressive taxation or redistributive policies is possible if he relies on left-wing or nationalist support. Geopolitically, Radev’s scepticism towards Russia sanctions and deep EU integration creates uncertainty, though the country’s Eurozone entry serves as a stabilizing pro-European anchor. Conversely, failure to form a government would prolong reform delays and weaken investor confidence.
Resources
