Seven political parties are on course to enter Bulgaria’s parliament after the country held snap parliamentary elections on 9th June, marking the fifth snap electoral contest since 2021 amidst deepening political instability and voter fatigue.

With an historically low turnout, the centre-right GERB-SDS of former PM Boyko Borissov finished first, securing 25% of the votes. The GERB-allied and Turkish minority Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) of US-sanctioned MP Delyan Peevski has usurped GERB’s main electoral rival, the centrist and pro-EU We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition (PP-DB). Support for PP-DB is now roughly equal to that of the far-right and pro-Russian revival, while the left-wing Bulgarian Socialist Party recorded its lowest electoral result in Bulgaria’s democratic history. They are followed by the populist There is Such a Nation (ITN) with 6%, while Grandeur, another pro-Russian formation, also passed the 4% threshold to enter parliament.

Following the elections, PP-DB indicated that they will go into opposition, leaving only two possible scenarios. Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes a government supported by GERB, the DPS and potentially ITN. Such a coalition would likely continue with supporting Bulgaria’s EU integration objectives, including efforts to enter the Eurozone and fully join the Schengen Area.

Should these parties fail to garner a functioning majority of MPs, Bulgaria’s seemingly endless election cycle will continue, potentially with yet another snap parliamentary election in the autumn. This would mean Bulgaria would continue to be governed by a caretaker government, appointed by President Rumen Radev, while pro-Russian formations could gain more ground going forward.