On 15 October, Polish voters will head to the polls in Central Europe’s most anticipated electoral contest. The election will see the clash of the two, longstanding rivals of Polish politics; the right-wing populist United Right alliance led by the Law and Justice party (PiS) and the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) of former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Aside from the two main electoral blocs, three other formations – the far-right Confederation, the Third Way alliance and the centre-left Lewica – are expected to enter parliament, with the first two blocs fiercely competing for finishing third at the polls. Since neither the PiS nor the KO is expected to reach beyond 50% of the vote, both the Confederation and the Third Way blocs stand good chances of becoming kingmakers and entering government.
Recent political movements suggest the ruling PiS has the best chance of finishing first at the polls and successfully garnering a coalition post-election, potentially with the Confederation or the Third Way bloc. However, an opposition victory remains possible, although with the need for most anti-PiS formations to perform higher than latest polls predict.
Below, Aretera takes a deeper look at the election campaign in Poland and the implications of this long-awaited parliamentary election.