The opposition Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) has secured a comfortable victory in the the country’s parliamentary elections. According to the preliminary results, the LSDP won the majority of electoral races held during the second round of the elections on 27^th October, securing 52 of the 141 seats in Lithuania’s parliament and overtaking the centre-right Homeland Union as the most popular political party.

Four other formations passed the 5% threshold to enter parliament. These include the populist nationalist Dawn of Nemunas, the green-centrist Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL), the centrist Liberal Movement (LS) and the centre-left Farmers and Greens Union (LVŽS), while smaller nationalist parties and independent candidates also picked up MP seats in the second round.

Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes swift coalition talks between the LSDP and its likely coalition partners – the Liberal Movement and the centre-left Farmers and Greens Union. While she declined to confirm that she would seek the position, incumbent centre-left MEP and LSDP leader Vilija Blinkevičiūtė is widely expected to become Lithuania’s next Prime Minister, succeeding Ingrida Šimonytė.

While the upcoming change of government is unlikely to bring any foreign and security policy changes, a prospective LSDP-led government will likely focus on domestic policy issues such as tackling inequality, as well as improving healthcare and social policy.