Romania Gears Up for Presidential & Parliamentary Elections
Pre-Election Landscape & Possible Forward Scenarios
November 18, 2024
Romania is gearing up for much-anticipated presidential and parliamentary elections that will decide the country’s bicameral legislature, next (coalition) government and future head of state, with multiple candidates in the race to succeed outgoing President Klaus Iohannis.
With a record number of candidates (14) in the race, reflecting various ideologies, the top presidential contenders include Marcel Ciolacu, Romania’s centre-left Prime Minister and the leader of the senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD); Nicolae Ciucă, Ciolacu’s predecessor as PM and the leader of the junior ruling National Liberal Party (PNL); Mircea Geoană, the former Deputy Secretary General of NATO (who is running as an independent) and George Simion, the leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR). With 10 days to go until the first round, several polls are predicting different outcomes, leaving the race for President on 24 November wide open. As no candidate is expected to garner the majority of the popular vote, the election will likely be decided in a run-off vote on 8 December.
As for the parliamentary elections on 1 December, the senior coalition PSD is consistently polling first with 30% on average, with the two ruling parties likely to secure more than half of the seats in parliament. Accordingly, Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes that Romania’s grand coalition government between the PSD and PNL will remain in power following the parliamentary elections, with four other formations to enter the Romanian parliament.
Looking beyond the elections, the continuation of the incumbent grand coalition government – despite occasional political tensions and policy disagreements – would ensure political stability in a country previously characterized by years of unstable governments and several coalition crises. Simultaneously, a presidential victory by either of the two ruling party candidates would mean a higher chance of ensuring a smooth legislative process, while an opposition-linked President would bring more political battles between the government and the presidential office.
With a record number of candidates (14) in the race, reflecting various ideologies, the top presidential contenders include Marcel Ciolacu, Romania’s centre-left Prime Minister and the leader of the senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD); Nicolae Ciucă, Ciolacu’s predecessor as PM and the leader of the junior ruling National Liberal Party (PNL); Mircea Geoană, the former Deputy Secretary General of NATO (who is running as an independent) and George Simion, the leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR). With 10 days to go until the first round, several polls are predicting different outcomes, leaving the race for President on 24 November wide open. As no candidate is expected to garner the majority of the popular vote, the election will likely be decided in a run-off vote on 8 December.
As for the parliamentary elections on 1 December, the senior coalition PSD is consistently polling first with 30% on average, with the two ruling parties likely to secure more than half of the seats in parliament. Accordingly, Aretera’s baseline scenario assumes that Romania’s grand coalition government between the PSD and PNL will remain in power following the parliamentary elections, with four other formations to enter the Romanian parliament.
Looking beyond the elections, the continuation of the incumbent grand coalition government – despite occasional political tensions and policy disagreements – would ensure political stability in a country previously characterized by years of unstable governments and several coalition crises. Simultaneously, a presidential victory by either of the two ruling party candidates would mean a higher chance of ensuring a smooth legislative process, while an opposition-linked President would bring more political battles between the government and the presidential office.
This memo was originally published on 15 November, and later updated on 18 November.
If you would like to schedule a discussion of this paper, please contact:
Anca Gherle, Aretera’s Country Director for Romania, at A.Gherle@AreteraPA.com.
If you would like to schedule a discussion of this paper, please contact:
Anca Gherle, Aretera’s Country Director for Romania, at A.Gherle@AreteraPA.com.