Possible Forward Scenarios After Romania's Parliamentary Election
Post-Election Landscape Ahead of the Presidential Run-Off Vote
December 4, 2024
A week after the shock victory of far-right candidate Călin Georgescu in the first round of the country’s presidential elections, Romania’s parliamentary elections, held on 1 December, also saw a rise in popular support for nationalist formations. However, the overall popular vote was still won by a combination of pro-EU establishment parties.
At a turnout of 52.5%, the senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) of centre-left PM Marcel Ciolacu has won the parliamentary election, with 22% of the popular vote, down from the 29% in the last election in 2020. Having doubled its share in the popular vote compared to 2020, the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) finished a close second with 18%, followed by the fellow coalition National Liberal Party (PNL) with 14.3%, down from 25%.
Of the largest number of parties, electoral alliances and other organizations running in a Romanian parliamentary election (50), four other parties passed the threshold to enter parliament. These include the centrist-liberal opposition Save Romania Union (USR; 12.3%), the far-right and conspiracy theorist SOS Romania (7.8%), the nationalist and the Călin Georgescu-linked Party of Young People (POT; 6.4%) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR; 6.4%). SOS Romania and POT are both recently founded and will enter parliament for the first time in their history.
Aretera expects tough and potentially protracted coalition talks, which will also be significantly influenced by the outcome of the second round of the presidential elections on 8 December. Our baseline scenario entails a pro-EU grand coalition government against the far-right, which includes the centre-left PSD, the centrist-liberal USR, the centre-right PNL and the Hungarian minority UDMR.
Recent polls suggest that Călin Georgescu is polling comfortably ahead of his run-off rival, USR leader Elena Lasconi, in the presidential race. However, a mobilization against the far-right and a united front by the mainstream parties could help her chances of winning the race. The second round will proceed as planned after Romania's Constitutional Court, which previously ordered a recount of the votes cast on 24 November over alleged irregularities, eventually certified the first-round results.
At a turnout of 52.5%, the senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) of centre-left PM Marcel Ciolacu has won the parliamentary election, with 22% of the popular vote, down from the 29% in the last election in 2020. Having doubled its share in the popular vote compared to 2020, the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) finished a close second with 18%, followed by the fellow coalition National Liberal Party (PNL) with 14.3%, down from 25%.
Of the largest number of parties, electoral alliances and other organizations running in a Romanian parliamentary election (50), four other parties passed the threshold to enter parliament. These include the centrist-liberal opposition Save Romania Union (USR; 12.3%), the far-right and conspiracy theorist SOS Romania (7.8%), the nationalist and the Călin Georgescu-linked Party of Young People (POT; 6.4%) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR; 6.4%). SOS Romania and POT are both recently founded and will enter parliament for the first time in their history.
Aretera expects tough and potentially protracted coalition talks, which will also be significantly influenced by the outcome of the second round of the presidential elections on 8 December. Our baseline scenario entails a pro-EU grand coalition government against the far-right, which includes the centre-left PSD, the centrist-liberal USR, the centre-right PNL and the Hungarian minority UDMR.
Recent polls suggest that Călin Georgescu is polling comfortably ahead of his run-off rival, USR leader Elena Lasconi, in the presidential race. However, a mobilization against the far-right and a united front by the mainstream parties could help her chances of winning the race. The second round will proceed as planned after Romania's Constitutional Court, which previously ordered a recount of the votes cast on 24 November over alleged irregularities, eventually certified the first-round results.
If you would like to schedule a discussion of this paper, please contact:
Anca Gherle, Aretera’s Country Director for Romania, at A.Gherle@AreteraPA.com.
Anca Gherle, Aretera’s Country Director for Romania, at A.Gherle@AreteraPA.com.