Three weeks after the country’s parliamentary elections, Romania’s pro-EU establishment parties have reached a much-anticipated agreement to form a grand coalition government. Led by Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the new government will include his Social Democratic Party (PSD), the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). Although the centrist-liberal USR also aimed to be part of the new ruling bloc, the coalition talks resulted in various disagreements, eventually prompting the USR to go into opposition.

Under the coalition deal between the three ruling parties, the centre-left PSD will have control over eight of the sixteen ministries, including those responsible for defence, health, transport, economy and digitalization and agriculture. The PNL will be in charge of the interior, education, foreign affairs, EU funds, environment and energy ministries, while the junior coalition UDMR will control the development and finance ministries.

The formation of the new government comes as Romania prepares for a re-run presidential election in early 2025 (foreseeably in March/April). On 6th December, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR) annulled the results of the first round of November’s presidential election over alleged Russian interference in favour of ultranationalist candidate Călin Georgescu. The incoming PSD-PNL-UDMR ruling bloc has decided to support former Senate President and ex-PNL chairman Crin Antonescu as their joint candidate, while additional candidates in the race (currently) include Bucharest’s popular liberal mayor Nicușor Dan and USR leader Elena Lasconi.

Looking into 2025, political instability and polarization has become a concern for Romania, with much to depend on the outcome of the re-run presidential election. A victory for Nicușor Dan or Elena Lasconi could ensure continued support for Romania’s pro-EU path, while a Crin Antonescu Presidency would also mean a smoother legislative process for the ruling bloc.