As widely anticipated, incumbent President Zoran Milanović has scored a sweeping victory in the second round of Croatia’s presidential elections, securing an overwhelming 74.7% against 25.3% for his centre-right opponent, Dragan Primorac, the candidate of Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

Having increased his electoral margin in comparison with the 2019-2020 presidential election, Milanović secured his second term as President due to his populist appeal, a decrease in the number of HDZ supporters, growing public discontent with the government’s policies and alleged corruption, his opponent’s inability to position himself as a credible contender, as well as high inflation.

While the President cannot veto legislation, Croatian politics will continue to be defined by the rivalry between the populist Milanović and Plenković’s HDZ. Despite winning last year's parliamentary elections with nearly 35%, support for HDZ has been dropping and is likely to continue to fall in 2025, with Croatian voters likely to look for new political alternatives. The Milanović-linked Social Democratic Party (SDP), the country’s main opposition party, also looks set to benefit from his reelection as President.

While the functioning of the Plenković Government will remain uninterrupted, the government continues to be supported by a thin majority in the Sabor (parliament). The ruling HDZ and smaller allied parties control 65 of the 151 MP seats (one seat is constitutionally vacant), with 11 additional MPs supporting the cabinet. Accordingly, political instability will remain a key risk to monitor in Croatia throughout 2025.