Serbia in Crisis: PM's Resignation Marks New Phase in Unprecedented Student Protest Movement
An Overview by Aretera
January 28, 2025
Prime Minister Miloš Vučević’s resignation on Tuesday morning, accompanied by that of Novi Sad Mayor Milan Đurić, has further thrown Serbia's political establishment into turmoil. This latest development emerges from the catastrophic collapse of the Novi Sad train station canopy on November 1, 2024, which killed 15 people and sparked the largest protest movement in recent Serbian history. Led by students but gathering broad social support, the protests have maintained unprecedented momentum for three months, culminating in the country's largest general strike last Friday and forcing significant concessions from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The situation remains highly volatile, with multiple scenarios possible for government formation and Novi Sad emerging as a key battleground in the days ahead.
UNPRECEDENTED STUDENT-LED PROTESTS
The collapse of the Novi Sad train station canopy on November 1, 2024, which killed 15 people, has hit at the heart of SNS's carefully cultivated image as the "builder party," a cornerstone of its political narrative built around infrastructure development and modernization. Despite initial legal proceedings and the temporary detention of 11 individuals, including former Minister of Construction Goran Vesić, the lack of successful prosecutions has only deepened public scepticism about accountability. The disaster exposed broader concerns about the safety and transparency of government projects, transforming a specific tragedy into a symbolic indictment of governance practices.
The response to the disaster has catalyzed an unprecedented protest movement that has been larger and more dynamic than any in Serbia’s history. Led by students but drawing support from a broad coalition including professors, actors, farmers, and activists, the protests have maintained momentum through innovative tactics and decentralized leadership. The movement's success culminated in last Friday's general strike, which achieved historic levels of participation despite the formal continuation of essential services. The subsequent 24-hour blockade of Belgrade's Autokomanda interchange demonstrated the movement's evolving capabilities, transforming potential disruption into community-building through creative activities including sports events and choir singing.
The protests have distinguished themselves from previous movements through their broad-based support and sophisticated approach to sustained mobilization. The absence of clear political articulation, while potentially limiting negotiating power, has paradoxically strengthened the movement by focusing on specific accountability demands rather than partisan politics. This has made the protests more difficult to co-opt or discredit through conventional means, while maintaining consistent pressure on the government.
The daily nature of these protests, with continuous blockades of universities, schools, and key streets across Serbia, has inevitably led to increasing confrontations. Protesters have faced regular violent incidents from frustrated citizens and alleged SNS sympathizers, including dozens of instances of drivers attempting to break through protest lines. The tension reached a new peak in the early hours of January 28, when students in Novi Sad were attacked by individuals carrying baseball bats who, according to witness accounts, emerged from local SNS offices. One student was severely injured. This incident proved to be the immediate catalyst for Vučević’s resignation, though the broader context suggests more complex political calculations may be at play.
POSSIBLE FORWARD SCENARIOS
Following Vučević’s resignation, the government now faces three possible paths forward: President Aleksandar Vučić’s appointment of a new Prime Minister within 30 days, snap elections, or the formation of a caretaker government. The latter option is advocated by opposition figures and would serve as a compromise solution, providing a pathway to improved election conditions. However, reaching an agreement on its composition and mandate would present significant challenges. The absence of clear frontrunners for PM and suggestions of divisions within the ruling coalition complicate any attempts at quick resolution.
Looking ahead, Novi Sad has emerged as a crucial battleground in the days ahead. The power vacuum created by the simultaneous resignations of both the Mayor and Prime Minister (who was former Mayor of Novi Sad) has particular significance in this SNS stronghold. The planned February 1 protest, aiming to occupy all three of the city's bridges on the three-month anniversary of the disaster, represents both a tactical escalation and a symbolic challenge to government authority. Recent violent incidents in the city, including attacks on student protesters, suggest growing tension that could potentially spiral beyond peaceful demonstration.
The situation remains highly fluid, with the potential for rapid changes in both the scale and nature of the crisis. The convergence of internal party dynamics, street protests, and institutional deadlines creates a complex political environment with no clear resolution in sight. The next few days, particularly the response to planned protests and initial moves toward government formation, will be crucial in determining whether the crisis moves toward resolution or further escalation.
UNPRECEDENTED STUDENT-LED PROTESTS
The collapse of the Novi Sad train station canopy on November 1, 2024, which killed 15 people, has hit at the heart of SNS's carefully cultivated image as the "builder party," a cornerstone of its political narrative built around infrastructure development and modernization. Despite initial legal proceedings and the temporary detention of 11 individuals, including former Minister of Construction Goran Vesić, the lack of successful prosecutions has only deepened public scepticism about accountability. The disaster exposed broader concerns about the safety and transparency of government projects, transforming a specific tragedy into a symbolic indictment of governance practices.
The response to the disaster has catalyzed an unprecedented protest movement that has been larger and more dynamic than any in Serbia’s history. Led by students but drawing support from a broad coalition including professors, actors, farmers, and activists, the protests have maintained momentum through innovative tactics and decentralized leadership. The movement's success culminated in last Friday's general strike, which achieved historic levels of participation despite the formal continuation of essential services. The subsequent 24-hour blockade of Belgrade's Autokomanda interchange demonstrated the movement's evolving capabilities, transforming potential disruption into community-building through creative activities including sports events and choir singing.
The protests have distinguished themselves from previous movements through their broad-based support and sophisticated approach to sustained mobilization. The absence of clear political articulation, while potentially limiting negotiating power, has paradoxically strengthened the movement by focusing on specific accountability demands rather than partisan politics. This has made the protests more difficult to co-opt or discredit through conventional means, while maintaining consistent pressure on the government.
The daily nature of these protests, with continuous blockades of universities, schools, and key streets across Serbia, has inevitably led to increasing confrontations. Protesters have faced regular violent incidents from frustrated citizens and alleged SNS sympathizers, including dozens of instances of drivers attempting to break through protest lines. The tension reached a new peak in the early hours of January 28, when students in Novi Sad were attacked by individuals carrying baseball bats who, according to witness accounts, emerged from local SNS offices. One student was severely injured. This incident proved to be the immediate catalyst for Vučević’s resignation, though the broader context suggests more complex political calculations may be at play.
POSSIBLE FORWARD SCENARIOS
Following Vučević’s resignation, the government now faces three possible paths forward: President Aleksandar Vučić’s appointment of a new Prime Minister within 30 days, snap elections, or the formation of a caretaker government. The latter option is advocated by opposition figures and would serve as a compromise solution, providing a pathway to improved election conditions. However, reaching an agreement on its composition and mandate would present significant challenges. The absence of clear frontrunners for PM and suggestions of divisions within the ruling coalition complicate any attempts at quick resolution.
Looking ahead, Novi Sad has emerged as a crucial battleground in the days ahead. The power vacuum created by the simultaneous resignations of both the Mayor and Prime Minister (who was former Mayor of Novi Sad) has particular significance in this SNS stronghold. The planned February 1 protest, aiming to occupy all three of the city's bridges on the three-month anniversary of the disaster, represents both a tactical escalation and a symbolic challenge to government authority. Recent violent incidents in the city, including attacks on student protesters, suggest growing tension that could potentially spiral beyond peaceful demonstration.
The situation remains highly fluid, with the potential for rapid changes in both the scale and nature of the crisis. The convergence of internal party dynamics, street protests, and institutional deadlines creates a complex political environment with no clear resolution in sight. The next few days, particularly the response to planned protests and initial moves toward government formation, will be crucial in determining whether the crisis moves toward resolution or further escalation.
If you would like to schedule a discussion of this paper, please contact:
Philip Merrell, Aretera’s Regional Director for Southeast Europe at P.Merrell@AreteraPA.com
Philip Merrell, Aretera’s Regional Director for Southeast Europe at P.Merrell@AreteraPA.com