Kosovo's February 2025 parliamentary elections have resulted in a complex political outcome that could lead to an extended period of negotiations. With 99.6% of the votes counted, incumbent PM Albin Kurti’s Vetëvendosje has emerged as the largest party with 40,87% of the vote, a significant decline from the 2021 majority position that necessitates coalition building. The opposition's enhanced position (with PDK at 22.03%, LDK at 17.61% and AAK at 7,46%) presents a potential alternative governing configuration, though this path is not without challenges.

Several scenarios are emerging: Kurti could try to secure his third government by combining Vetëvendosje's projected seats with minority representatives and potentially strong diaspora vote results, but this would also not be straightforward, especially considering his complex relations with Srpska Lista, the Serbian government-backed minority list. He could also attempt to form a coalition with one of the opposition parties, though this would be against his pre-election rhetoric. Alternatively, the opposition parties, which together control roughly 47% of the vote, could attempt to form a coalition government, which would require significant compromise.

Although potentially unstable, a wide opposition coalition would likely enjoy greater international support. If neither path succeeds, Kosovo could face repeated elections and political deadlock, which would particularly impact progress on international agreements and delay critical development projects.

Whoever forms the next government – or in case of a prolonged stalemate – faces immediate challenges: addressing EU sanctions, managing increasingly complex U.S. relations and navigating Kosovo's international obligations, particularly regarding dialogue with Serbia. The uncertainty introduces additional risks for investors and development projects, potentially stalling both domestic reforms and international engagement.