Tajikistan Heads for Parliamentary Election as Country Prepares for Potential Transfer of Power
Post-election landscape could see strengthened ties
with the EAEU & the CSTO
with the EAEU & the CSTO
February 27, 2025
On 2nd March, Tajikistan will hold parliamentary elections to elect the 63 members of the Majlisi Namoyandagon (lower house of parliament) for a five-year term, with upper house elections to follow on 28th March. Given the country’s authoritarian political system controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and the lack of opposition alternatives, the upcoming electoral contest is expected to be dominated by the ruling People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) and the parties of the systemic opposition.
A sweeping PDPT victory would mean the continuation of current public policies, potentially with an increase in state control over the economy and foreign companies. An alternative scenario entails a slight increase in the representation of the country’s remaining establishment parties, aimed at rejuvenating the political elite. However, regardless of the parliamentary election results, the ruling elite’s control over the formation and implementation of domestic and foreign policies is expected to remain close to the family of President Rahmon. Post-election, Aretera expects Tajikistan to focus on preparations for an expected transition of power that could see Rustam Emomali (the President’s son) become his successor, as well as on relations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Other key challenges will include relations with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and China over a series of bilateral disputes.
Addressing key economic challenges, such as inflation and the need for diversification, will require the new parliament and the government to take decisive steps in opening the market to foreign investment. The implementation of such measures could positively influence Tajikistan’s domestic status quo. At the same time, the country’s high dependence on imports, the small size of the domestic market, and the low purchasing power will continue to pose challenges, limiting the government's ability to mitigate potential foreign policy risks.
A sweeping PDPT victory would mean the continuation of current public policies, potentially with an increase in state control over the economy and foreign companies. An alternative scenario entails a slight increase in the representation of the country’s remaining establishment parties, aimed at rejuvenating the political elite. However, regardless of the parliamentary election results, the ruling elite’s control over the formation and implementation of domestic and foreign policies is expected to remain close to the family of President Rahmon. Post-election, Aretera expects Tajikistan to focus on preparations for an expected transition of power that could see Rustam Emomali (the President’s son) become his successor, as well as on relations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Other key challenges will include relations with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and China over a series of bilateral disputes.
Addressing key economic challenges, such as inflation and the need for diversification, will require the new parliament and the government to take decisive steps in opening the market to foreign investment. The implementation of such measures could positively influence Tajikistan’s domestic status quo. At the same time, the country’s high dependence on imports, the small size of the domestic market, and the low purchasing power will continue to pose challenges, limiting the government's ability to mitigate potential foreign policy risks.
If you would like to schedule a discussion of this paper, please contact:
Pavel Melnikov, Regional Director for Central Asia & the South Caucasus, at P.Melnikov@AreteraPA.com
Pavel Melnikov, Regional Director for Central Asia & the South Caucasus, at P.Melnikov@AreteraPA.com