Central and Eastern European states are bracing themselves for the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, with widespread expectations of adverse consequences. Poland, the region's largest economy, has advocated for reciprocal tariffs, with initial projections suggesting short-term negative effects on its GDP growth due to the US measures. Across the region, Romania is preparing a state aid scheme to support businesses across all sectors, while Czechia has stressed the importance of a joint EU response.

Hungary and Slovakia, both ideologically closer to the Trump administration, have criticized Brussels for failing to agree trading terms with the US in recent months. Slovak government officials have also suggested the EU should have prioritized US-EU trade relations over the European Green Deal. Leading Bulgarian politicians also warned of the possible negative impact, urging the government in Sofia to respond. Ukraine's government anticipates a limited direct impact due to low export volumes, yet acknowledges growing anxieties regarding potential indirect effects.

Slovenia has identified potential damage to European supply chains as the key vulnerability, while suggesting that domestic US economic pain will eventually create negotiating leverage and proposing digital services as the optimal target for EU countermeasures. Croatia is adopting a more nationally focused stance, with PM Plenković prioritizing national economic interests in EU discussions.

Türkiye perceives its lower 10% tariff rate as a potential competitive advantage given its limited US export exposure and domestic demand-focused economy. Greece has committed to EU solidarity and remains confident about the economic impact, while also questioning the economic logic of taxing uniquely Mediterranean products.

The Western Balkan response to US tariffs reflects existing geopolitical fault lines, with most nation leveraging the economic challenge to reinforce its strategic positioning rather than pursuing purely economic remedies. Their approaches – from Serbia's direct appeal to Trump, to Kosovo’s, Albania’s and Montenegro's diplomatic accommodation – reveal how regional actors reframe external economic pressures through their particular political lenses.

As for the potential economic impact on the region, early forecasts suggest Slovakia and Hungary could take the largest economic hit due to drops in automotive exports. All regional economies expect a negative impact in the short term, while the indirect impact could further influence the expected economic impact on the region.

Uncertainty has continued even as the White House announced on 9^th April that the EU will face a 10% duty on exports to the US instead of the previously announced 20% “reciprocal tariff” (the 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and cars however will remain in place). Responding to the sudden US move, the European Commission confirmed a 90-day pause on its previously announced countermeasures (duties of up to 25% gradually imposed on a broad range of US imports) on 10^th April. While this leaves room for negotiating between the two sides, which could also impact trade relations with non-EU partners in Europe as well, it is yet to be seen what agreement could be achieved.