George Simion, leader of the main opposition and nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), comfortably won the first round of Romania’s presidential election on 4th May, securing nearly 41% of the popular vote at a turnout of 53.2%. Liberal Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan finished a distant second with 21%, narrowly beating Crin Antonescu, the unity candidate of the three-party ruling bloc, who garnered 20.1%.

Simion is widely believed to have capitalized not only on public dissatisfaction with the establishment parties but also Romania's annulment of its November 2024 Presidential election and the authorities’ decision to bar former ultranationalist candidate Calin Georgescu from re-entering the race. Simion ran on Georgescu’s behalf and with his endorsement, substantially increasing the combined support cast for the two candidates in the two elections. A strong supporter of Donald Trump and also a Ukraine-sceptic, Simion is widely expected to win in the second round on 18th May.

In parallel, Crin Antonescu’s failure to advance to the second round has pushed Romania’s grand coalition government to collapse and Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to resign. The senior coalition Social Democratic Party (PSD) subsequently withdrew from their coalition with the centre-right National Liberals (PNL) and the Hungarian minority UDMR. All current ministers will remain in position in a caretaker capacity until a new government is appointed, with Interior Minister Cătălin Predoiu to serve as interim PM for a limited mandate of 45 days.

As the remaining centrist parties lack sufficient lawmakers to support a new government, Romania is likely heading for snap parliamentary elections later this year. This would primarily benefit the main opposition AUR, especially if Simion secures the Presidency as expected.