On 3-4^th October, Czechia will hold parliamentary elections to elect the 200 members (MPs) of the Chamber of Deputies (lower house of parliament). Less than three weeks before Czechia’s parliamentary elections, the main opposition ANO movement of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is comfortably leading in the polls, with 30% on average.

Eyeing a return to government after falling out of power in 2021, ANO has reemerged as the largest Czech political formation and won all recent electoral contests, including the Senate (upper house) and regional elections in 2024. The party’s main rival – Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s centre-right SPOLU alliance – is trailing in the polls and will rely heavily on the electoral performance of his current and former coalition partners.

Multiple parties are in the race for third place, including Fiala’s junior coalition partner (the centre-right STAN), the hard Eurosceptic SPD and the progressive-liberal Pirates. After falling out of parliament four years ago, the Left is expected to make a comeback through the newly formed Stačilo! coalition, while other radical right-wing parties, such as the Motorists, may also enter parliament.

While ANO is expected to win the election, whether it will be able to form a stable governing majority will depend on the performance of radical right-wing and far-left formations (or a combination of them). A less probable scenario could see Fiala’s four-party ruling bloc and the Pirates securing enough votes between them to form a majority, however this would require a stronger-than-expected performance from virtually all members of the current ruling bloc. Some polls claim approximately 30% of voters have yet to make up their minds, fuelling further uncertainty around the potential outcome.