On 28th September, Moldova will hold parliamentary elections to elect the 101 members (MPs) of the country’s unicameral parliament. Less than four days before the elections, the ruling and pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is running neck-and-neck with the pro-Russian and main opposition Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), with both formations polling at 30-35%.

In addition to the ruling PAS and the opposition BEP, only two other parties are projected to enter parliament. These include the centrist Alternativa Bloc of Chișinău Mayor Ion Ceban and the populist/left-wing Our Party of former Presidential candidate Renato Usatîi.

If the ruling PAS wins the election, the party is expected to enter into coalition talks with the moderately pro-EU Alternativa, however these negotiations could prove complicated due to the Alternativa’s leadership ambitions and pro-Russian political roots. Another scenario entails the pro-Russian BEP winning and moving to form a coalition with Usatîi’s Our Party. However, if the party underperforms at the polls, it may also have to reach out to the Alternativa Bloc.

Under a PAS-led government, Moldova would see the continuation of pro-EU reforms, sustained progress on EU accession talks, further alignment with various EU regulations and the acceleration of judicial and anti-corruption reforms. By contrast, a victory for the pro-Russian BEP would seek political and economic normalization with Moscow, greater access to the Russian market and cheaper Russian gas imports.

If no single party or bloc secures a majority, the expected political instability could lead to the formation of a technocratic government for an interim period, or a minority government. In the lack of an agreement to form a cabinet, Moldova will head for re-run parliamentary elections.